The weather prognosticators are at it again. The weather prediction for the day (Sunday) was for rain or sleet. Instead we wake up with six inches of snow. Of course, my daughter was happy about all this.

But it got me thinking again about all the hysteria about global warming. At the center of my discontent on this topic for believing that global warming, caused by humans, is real, is the fact that both the ability to accurately measure and then predict weather is so inprecise that it makes the far reaching, catostrophic predictions seem absolutely ridiculous to me! If the weather prognosticators cannot even get the prediction for the climate right just one day out, how can we expect climatologists to accurately predict that we will be facing dire consequences some ten, twenty or one hundred years in the future.

I misuse the term “Cassandra” (based on Greek mythology as the daughter of King Priam of Troy), who is characterized as someone who can see the future but is disbelieved. In actuality, Global Warming is more about belief then about science, in my humble opinion. I realized this when talking with someone the other day. He was a smart young person, but he believed that we should be doing more to take care of our planet Earth, and as a result of not taking care of it, we were causing Global Warming. It is unfortunate that that many people’s concerns for their environment are misused by those seeking to exploit that concern for political gain, money, or noteriety (or all of the above).

So, here are Hal’s reasons for “believing” that Global Warming (defined herein as the increase of climatological tempatures due to manmade influences) is not a fact and may actually be bunk.

Modeling Climate when data contains inaccuracies. Climatological predictions are based on models. These models use combinations of data that has a high degree of error in it (the older the data the more the error – think about the kinds of thermometers used 300 years, 100 years, or even 50 years ago). If there are indeed high error factors, why are we willing to put such faith in the models being used to predict Global Warming?

Failure to consider other factors. Some of the models I have read about do not take take all kinds of conditions into account (such as solar flares).

Models break down over time. The reason for having a model of short duration is that it can be mapped to recent data without having to be accurate over geological time. How good is this short duration model? The real issue then becomes - at what point is the model good for. Weather guessers' models are really only good for at best a week.

Is Man the real problem? While many want to believe that Man can have a profound effect on the ecology of the Earth, I would challenge that naturally occurring conditions more likely the cause of any climate change. How much of the increase of carbon dioxide is caused by the released of the gas from volcanos (or other natural events) when compared to all the cars in the all the civlized countries?

In truth, scientists over a quarter century ago were predicting direous consequences of the coming Ice Age, and in fact, have gone back and forth for about the last century. 

Perhaps it is the heigth of Man’s arrogance to believe that we have so much of an impact on climate. How would we feel if tomorrow some scientist(s) proved that we had no impact at all on climate, animal extinctions, hurricanes, tornados, locusts, fire ants, or any other coming disaster?

Perhaps think people have to think that they have some control over these forces. Perhaps, for some people, believing that driving more Prius cars would make the World better, the air cleaner, the hurricanes less, the polar bears more populant. Perhaps that is better for them then believing (or knowing) that nothing they would do will have any impact at all on preventing a hurricane, the sinking of New York into the sea, an earthquake, or some other tragic disaster.

My biggest concern with the concept of global climatological analysis is that it has been seized, better yet, hijacked by politicians, media, environmentalist organizations resulting in less intelligent discussing about the subject and more hyperbole.